【HR术语】什么是预测性人力资源分析？（What is predictive HR analytics?）
什么是预测性人力资源分析？
预测性人力资源分析是人力资源部门用来分析过去和现在的数据以预测未来结果的一种技术工具。预测性人力资源分析以数字化方式挖掘数据，提取、剖析和归类信息，然后识别模式、不规则性和相关性。通过统计分析和预测建模，分析可实现有关人力资源职能的数据驱动决策。
预测性人力资源分析系统让人想起蚯蚓。蚯蚓吸收天然废料和残渣，排出营养丰富的肥沃土壤。预测性分析也是如此，它吸收未使用的原始数据，并将其转化为适用的信息，为更明智的业务决策提供支持。
人力资源预测分析实例
以下是当今组织如何应用人力资本预测分析的一些示例：
招聘。预测分析可帮助人力资源专业人员确定最有效的顶尖人才来源。通过分析成功招聘的历史数据，企业可以将招聘工作重点放在能产生最佳效果的平台和渠道上。
留住员工。预测模型可以分析员工数据，如绩效考核、缺勤率和任期，以识别有离职风险的员工。这样，人力资源部门就可以采取积极措施，如提供职业发展机会或解决工作场所的问题，留住有价值的人才。
劳动力规划。预测分析可以通过考虑退休率、人员流动和新兴行业趋势等因素，预测公司未来的技能缺口。然后，人力资源部门可以制定培训和发展计划，弥补这些差距，确保员工队伍保持竞争力。
员工绩效管理。预测性人力资源分析可根据历史绩效数据预测团队成员的未来绩效。这有助于人力资源团队识别可能成为关键职位潜在接班人的高绩效人员，并帮助他们发现其他人可能落后的原因。
员工参与和福利。预测分析能够发现影响员工敬业度的问题。人力资源专业人员可以通过监控工作量和工作时间等因素，识别可能面临职业倦怠或其他心理健康问题风险的人员。然后，人力资源部门可以为有需要的人提供有针对性的支持和资源。
预测性分析如何帮助人力资源部门？
预测性人力资源分析可以帮助组织预测挑战，从而可以：
避免风险
减少人为错误
预测将在组织中茁壮成长的典型员工情况
加强招聘实践
鼓励实现最佳工作绩效
最终，预测性人力资源分析可帮助人力资源领导者做出清晰明确的决策，从而增加整体利润，提高员工的积极性、忠诚度、参与度和工作效率。
预测性和描述性人力资源分析有何不同？
描述性人力资源分析包括检查历史人力资源数据，以全面了解组织内发生了什么及其原因。
而预测性人力资源分析则不局限于此，而是通过分析历史数据和过去的趋势来预测未来会发生什么，从而使组织有机会采取预防措施或抓住出现的机遇。同时使用预测性和描述性两种人员分析形式的组织，都能为自己带来最大的影响。
如何成功实施预测性人力资源分析系统？
人力资源领导者可以利用以下技巧率先实施有效的预测性人力资源分析：
确定业务目标。人力资源领导者可以与团队合作，确定公司的长期目标，团队成员也可以帮助确定支持实现这些目标的相关指标。
确保透彻理解。预测性人力资源分析是一个复杂的领域，不熟悉数据科学的人力资源专业人员可能会对此感到畏惧。然而，为整个人力资源团队提供一致且多样化的学习选择，可以减轻他们对这一主题的不适感，加深理解，并鼓励员工持续发展。方法之一是鼓励人力资源团队熟悉每种分析算法的基本推理。人力资源部门还可以让数据科学家或人力资源数据分析师参与进来，以确保预测分析流程的最佳运作。
解决道德问题。为了避免对员工的不公平歧视待遇，预测分析团队可以预先防范可能出现的道德问题。公司可能会有意或无意地虐待员工中的特定人群，或者由于不正当的数据驱动推理而偏袒某些团队成员。因此，透明地遵守公司的行为准则和人力资源道德准则至关重要。员工需要知道他们的雇主是公平对待他们的，这样他们才会有参与感，才会有茁壮成长的动力。
利用预测分析的力量。人力资源领导者可以通过将预测分析应用于特定目标，最大限度地发挥其作用。例如，人力资源领导者可以结合预测分析来设计有效的职业发展计划，以解决能力差距和未来的能力需求问题，从而按照员工所希望的学习轨迹对其进行培训。
预测性人力资源分析如何改善企业文化？
预测性人力资源分析提供了一种方法，可帮助领导者做出明智的决策，从而培养一支充满热情和高绩效的员工队伍。有效、合乎道德地使用人力资源分析，可以使公司有能力识别、雇佣、吸引和留住符合公司文化并乐于为公司发展做出贡献的高素质专业人才。
为企业选择合适的预测性人力资源分析工具
选择合适的人员分析软件是人力资源专业人士和企业必须迈出的关键一步，这样他们才能收获人力资源预测分析的所有回报。
工具的选择应符合具体的业务需求、资源和目标。要做出明智的决定，有几个关键点需要牢记：
集成。工具能否与现有人力资源系统无缝集成？兼容性和数据传输的便捷性对于准确的预测建模至关重要。
可扩展性。合适的工具能够随着企业的扩张而扩展人力资源预测分析工作。
用户友好界面。寻找能够提供直观的仪表盘、可视化和报告功能的工具，使人力资源专业人员能够轻松访问和解释洞察力。
可解释性。确保工具对其预测做出解释。这样，您的人力资源团队就能理解为什么会做出某些预测，并采取适当的行动。
数据安全性和合规性。人力资源数据通常包括敏感和机密信息。确保工具遵守数据隐私法规，并有保护数据的安全措施。
支持和培训。考虑工具供应商提供的支持和培训水平。充分的培训和持续的支持对人力资源团队有效使用工具并最大限度地发挥其优势至关重要。
成本和投资回报率。评估总体拥有成本，包括许可费用、实施成本和持续维护费用。通过估算工具的洞察力如何对人力资源成果和组织绩效产生积极影响，计算潜在的投资回报。
用户反馈和评论。向使用过该工具的人力资源专业人士征求反馈意见，并阅读行业内其他组织的评论。他们的经验可以为了解工具的优缺点提供宝贵的见解。
通过仔细考虑这些因素，您可以为您的人力资源团队提供一个预测性劳动力分析工具，从而增强决策能力，推动人力资源战略，促进整体业务成功。
以下为文章原文：
What is predictive HR analytics?
Predictive HR analytics is a tech tool that HR uses to analyze past and present data to forecast future outcomes. Predictive HR analytics digitally digs through data to extract, dissect, and categorize information and then identify patterns, irregularities, and correlations. Through statistical analysis and predictive modeling, analytics enables data-driven decisions regarding HR functions.
Predictive HR analytics systems are reminiscent of the earthworm. The worm ingests natural waste material and residue and excretes nutrient-rich, fertile soil. Predictive analytics, too, intakes unused, raw data and transforms it into applicable information that supports wiser business decisions.
Predictive HR analytics examples
Here are some examples of how organizations today apply human capital predictive analytics:
Recruitment. Predictive analytics helps HR professionals identify the most effective sources of top talent. By analyzing historical data on successful hires, organizations can focus their recruitment efforts on the platforms and channels that yield the best results.
Employee retention. Predictive models can analyze employee data, such as performance reviews, absenteeism, and tenure, to identify people at risk of leaving the company. This allows HR to take proactive measures, such as offering career development opportunities or addressing workplace concerns, to retain valuable talent.
Workforce planning. Predictive analytics can forecast future skill gaps within a company by considering factors like retirement rates, turnover, and emerging industry trends. HR can then develop training and development programs to fill these gaps and ensure the workforce remains competitive.
Employee performance management. Predictive HR analytics can forecast a team member’s future performance based on historical performance data. This helps the HR team identify high-performing people who could be potential successors for critical roles, and can help them discover why others may be lagging behind.
Employee engagement and wellbeing. Predictive analytics has the ability to uncover issues that affect employee engagement. HR professionals can identify people who may be at risk of burnout or other mental health issues by monitoring factors like workload and working hours. HR can then provide targeted support and resources to those in need.
How does predictive analytics help human resources?
Predictive HR analytics assists organizations in anticipating challenges so they can:
Avoid risk
Reduce human error
Forecast the typical employee profile that’ll thrive in the organization
Enhance recruitment practices
Encourage optimal work performance
Ultimately, predictive HR analytics helps HR leaders make crystal-clear decisions that can increase overall profit and nurture employee motivation, retention, engagement, and productivity.
What is the difference between predictive and descriptive HR analytics?
Descriptive HR analytics involves examining historical HR data to get a thorough understanding of what has happened within an organization and why.
Predictive HR analytics, on the other hand, goes beyond this and analyzes historical data and past trends to predict what will happen in the future—giving an organization the chance to take preventive measures or to seize opportunities as they arise. Organizations that use both predictive and descriptive forms of people analytics set themselves up to achieve the greatest impact.
How do you implement a successful predictive HR analytics system?
HR leaders can spearhead effective predictive HR analytics using the following tips:
Define business objectives. HR leaders can collaborate with their teams to identify long-term company goals, with team members also helping determine the relevant metrics that support the achievement of these objectives.
Ensure a thorough understanding. Predictive HR analytics is a complex field, and HR professionals unfamiliar with data science can feel intimidated by it. However, providing consistent and diverse learning options for your entire HR team can mitigate their discomfort with the subject, elevate understanding, and encourage continual employee development. One way to do this is to encourage your HR team to familiarize themselves with the fundamental reasoning driving each analytics algorithm. HR can also involve a data scientist or bring an HR data analyst on board to ensure optimal functioning of the predictive analytics process.
Address ethical considerations. To avoid unfair discriminatory treatment of employees, predictive analytics teams can pre-empt possible ethical issues that may arise. Companies could intentionally or unintentionally mistreat specific demographics within the workforce or perhaps show favoritism to certain team members due to illegitimate data-driven reasoning. Thus, transparently adhering to the company’s code of conduct and the HR code of ethics is paramount. People need to know that their employers are treating them fairly to feel engaged and motivated to thrive.
Harness the power of predictive analytics. HR leaders can maximize predictive analytics by applying it to specific objectives. For example, HR leaders can incorporate predictive analytics to design an effective career development program that addresses competency gaps and future competency needs, allowing them to train people in their desired learning trajectory.
How can predictive HR analytics improve company culture?
Predictive HR analytics offers a way to help leaders make informed decisions that nurture an enthusiastic and high-performing workforce. Effective and ethical use of HR analytics can empower companies to identify, hire, engage, and retain quality professionals who align with the company culture and are excited to contribute to its growth.
Choosing the right predictive HR analytics tool for your business
Selecting the right people analytics software is a crucial step for HR professionals and organizations to take, so that they’re able to reap all the rewards of HR predictive analytics.
The choice of tool should align with specific business needs, resources, and objectives. There are a few key things to keep in mind to be able to make an informed decision:
Integration. Can the tool seamlessly integrate with your existing HR systems? Compatibility and ease of data transfer are essential for accurate predictive modeling.
Scalability. The right tool will be able to expand your predictive HR analytics efforts as your organization expands.
User-friendly interface. Look for tools that offer intuitive dashboards, visualizations, and reporting features, making it easy for HR professionals to access and interpret insights.
Explainability. Ensure that the tool provides explanations for its predictions. That way, your HR team can understand why certain predictions are made and take appropriate actions.
Data security and compliance. HR data often includes sensitive and confidential information. Make sure the tool adheres to data privacy regulations and has security measures to protect your data.
Support and training. Consider the level of support and training provided by the tool’s vendor. Adequate training and ongoing support are essential for HR teams to effectively use the tool and maximize its benefits.
Cost and ROI. Evaluate the total cost of ownership, including licensing fees, implementation costs, and ongoing maintenance expenses. Calculate the potential return on investment by estimating how the tool’s insights can positively impact HR outcomes and organizational performance.
User feedback and reviews. Seek feedback from HR professionals who have used the tool and read reviews from other organizations in your industry. Their experiences can provide valuable insights into the tool’s strengths and weaknesses.
By carefully considering these factors, you can empower your HR team with a predictive workforce analytics tool that enhances decision-making, drives HR strategies, and contributes to overall business success.
【HR术语】什么是员工终身价值？（What is employee lifetime value？）
什么是员工终身价值（ELTV）？
员工终生价值（ELTV）是组织用来评估团队成员在整个员工生命周期内的财务价值的指标。
与评估客户在整个关系中为企业带来的价值的客户终身价值（CLV）类似，ELTV 侧重于团队成员通过其技能、想法和文化契合所产生的价值。
为什么衡量 ELTV 很重要？
ELTV能让人力资源专业人员深入了解是什么阻碍了员工充分发挥其生产潜力。这种洞察力可以帮助人力资源领导者制定措施，激励团队成员更多地参与工作，从而最大限度地提高团队成员对公司的贡献。
这些举措反过来又会提高团队成员的ELTV。通过衡量这些计划的进展情况，人力资源专业人员可以证明以人为本的投资回报率，从而更容易获得公司利益相关者的支持，并鼓励进一步进行以人为本的投资。
员工终身价值公式
您可以使用下面的公式计算 ELTV：
ELTV =（团队成员的平均年收入）x（团队成员的平均任期）
通过这个公式，您可以基本了解一个人的 ELTV。不过，为了更清楚地了解情况，还需要考虑以下因素：
生产率和绩效。评估专业人员的生产力、绩效以及对公司目标的整体影响。
留住人才。任期越长，往往意味着知识和经验越丰富，对企业的潜在价值越大。
培训和发展成本。考虑团队成员在整个任期内的培训投资。
薪酬和福利。考虑您为个人提供的整体薪酬方案，包括工资、奖金和福利。
对公司文化的贡献。认可个人在塑造和提升公司文化、促进团队合作以及为工作环境做出积极贡献方面的作用。
如何提高 ELTV
您可以通过应对员工生命周期中的主要挑战来提高 ELTV：缩短生产时间和提高员工保留率。
缩短生产时间
在员工生命周期的开始阶段，新员工需要一段时间来熟悉自己的角色，并充分发挥生产力。
通过缩短生产时间，企业可以帮助新员工在更长的时间内创造最大价值。
缩短产出时间的策略包括改进以下方面：
招聘。全面的招聘流程和有吸引力的福利待遇可确保您招聘到具备适当技能、资质和经验的顶尖人才，从而更快地实现全员生产率。
入职前培训。通过有效的入职前培训，新员工可以在开始工作前处理必要的行政事务，从而迅速提高工作效率。
入职培训。清晰高效的入职流程有助于新员工尽快熟悉自己的角色。
实施留用战略
留住员工的策略可以延长员工生命周期中生产力最高的时期，鼓励他们在贵组织工作更长的时间。
挽留战略可包括：
投资于学习和发展。提供技能发展和持续学习的途径，不仅能充实员工队伍，还能提高他们的士气和敬业精神。
营造积极的工作环境。培养重视多样性、包容性和幸福感的工作场所文化。心情愉悦的员工往往能在组织中待得更久，并能更有效地为组织目标做出贡献。
表彰和奖励优秀。无论是通过奖金、晋升还是公开表彰，赞赏都会大大有助于降低员工流失率和提高 ELTV。
HCM如何改善Amdaris的ELTV
Amdaris 是一家软件开发公司，面临着员工队伍迅速扩大的挑战。他们需要一套人力资源系统，帮助他们在整个员工生命周期内实现流程自动化并加以改进。
通过使用 Bob HCM，Amdaris 能够收集准确的数据，并根据增长率、离职率和平均任期等各种关键绩效指标洞察趋势。
通过这些数据，Amdaris 的管理层清楚地了解了他们的员工及其需求。有了Bob，他们能够创建吸引人的入职前和入职流程，帮助缩短新员工的生产时间。
Bob还使他们能够定期从团队成员那里获得反馈，为留住人才的策略提供依据，从而有机会提高 ELTV。
成功的重要衡量标准
衡量ELTV 可以让您深入了解组织的员工以及帮助他们取得成功的因素。这些洞察力可帮助您实施人力资源计划，使公司发生显著变化。
在向公司利益相关者证明新举措或人力资本管理的投资回报率时，ELTV也很有用。
当企业认识到并培养每个员工所带来的价值时，他们就建立了一种培养人才、推动发展并确保长期成功的文化。
以下为文章原文：
What is employee lifetime value (ELTV)?
Employee lifetime value (ELTV) is a metric organizations use to evaluate the financial value of a team member throughout the employee lifecycle.
Similar to customer lifetime value (CLV), which assesses the value a customer brings to a business throughout their entire relationship, ELTV focuses on the value a team member generates through their skills, ideas, and cultural alignment.
Why is it important to measure ELTV?
ELTV gives HR professionals insight into what could be inhibiting their people from reaching their full productive potential. This kind of insight helps HR leaders put initiatives in place that create incentives for team members to engage more with their work, therefore maximizing the contributions of team members to the company.
These initiatives boost team members’ ELTV in turn. By measuring the progress of these programs, HR professionals can demonstrate the ROI of people-focused investments, making it easier to gain buy-in from company stakeholders and encouraging further people-focused investment.
Employee lifetime value formula
You can use the formula below to calculate ELTV:
ELTV = (Average yearly revenue generated of team member) x (Average tenure of team member)
This equation can give you a basic understanding of a person’s ELTV. However, to get a clearer picture, it’s helpful to also consider the following factors:
Productivity and performance. Assessing a professional’s productivity, performance, and overall impact on the company’s goals.
Retention. Longer tenure often implies more knowledge, experience, and potentially greater value for the organization.
Training and development costs. Factoring in the investment made in training a team member throughout their tenure.
Salary and benefits. Considering the total compensation package you provide to the individual, including salary, bonuses, and benefits.
Contribution to company culture. Recognizing a person’s role in shaping and enhancing the company culture, fostering teamwork, and contributing positively to the work environment.
How to improve ELTV
You can improve ELTV by addressing the main challenges of the employee lifecycle: reducing time-to-productivity and increasing the employee retention rate.
Reduce time-to-productivity
At the beginning of the employee lifecycle, it takes time for a new hire to become familiar with their role and reach full productivity.
By reducing time-to-productivity, an organization is helping a new hire produce the most value for a longer period of time.
Strategies to reduce time-to-productivity include improving:
Recruitment. A thorough recruitment process and attractive benefits packages ensure you’re hiring top talent with the right skills, qualifications, and experience to reach full productivity faster.
Preboarding. With effective preboarding, new hires can quickly become productive by taking care of the necessary admin before starting work.
Onboarding. Having a clear and efficient onboarding process helps new hires familiarize themselves with their roles sooner.
Implement retention strategies
Retention strategies extend your people’s period of peak productivity in the employee lifecycle by encouraging them to stay at your organization for a longer period of time.
Retention strategies could include:
Investing in learning and development. Providing avenues for skill development and continuous learning not only enriches your workforce but also boosts their morale and dedication.
Fostering a positive work environment. Cultivate a workplace culture that values diversity, inclusivity, and wellbeing. A happy workforce tends to stay longer and contributes more effectively to the organization’s goals.
Recognizing and rewarding excellence. Whether through bonuses, promotions, or public recognition, appreciation goes a long way toward reducing employee turnover and increasing ELTV.
How an HCM improved Amdaris’ ELTV
Amdaris, a software development company, faced challenges with a rapidly expanding workforce. They needed an HR system that could help them automate and improve processes throughout the employee lifecycle.
By using the Bob HCM, Amdaris was able to gather accurate data that gave them insights into trends based on a wide range of KPIs, such as growth rate, turnover rate, and average tenure.
Through this range of data, Amdaris’ management had a clear understanding of their people and what they needed. With Bob, they were able to create engaging preboarding and onboarding processes that helped reduce time-to-productivity for new hires.
Bob also allowed them to get regular feedback from team members to inform retention strategies—giving them the chance to increase ELTV.
An essential metric for success
Measuring ELTV can give you key insights into your organization’s people and the factors that help them succeed. These insights help you implement HR initiatives that make a significant difference to your company.
ELTV can also prove useful when justifying new initiatives or an HCM’s ROI to company stakeholders.
When organizations recognize and nurture the value each of their people brings to the table, they establish a culture that fosters talent, drives growth, and secures long-term success.
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